IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER
This information is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All models are predictions and may be wrong.
Bitcoin Prediction Models
Understand the different scientific approaches to Bitcoin price prediction and how they can affect your path to financial freedom.
How your projection is calculated
Your result combines the values you enter, the current Bitcoin market price, the selected projection model, and the 4% rule. It is a fixed calculation, not a personalised recommendation.
See model assumptions and limitationsHide model assumptions and limitations
Four fixed projection scenarios
Each scenario is an assumption, not a forecast or a promise. The actual Bitcoin price can differ substantially.
Power Law
A time-based mathematical curve, adjusted to the current BTC price.
Limit: Historical patterns can break and the model does not account for market events.
Stock-to-Flow
Halving-cycle growth assumptions based on Bitcoin supply scarcity.
Limit: It does not model demand, regulation, or unexpected events.
Conservative
A fixed annual growth assumption of 20%.
Limit: The assumed rate can still be too high or too low.
Rainbow Chart
A fixed annual growth assumption of 25%, inspired by logarithmic price patterns.
Limit: Chart patterns are not guarantees and do not predict market turning points.
This tool does not assess your financial situation, choose a model for you, or provide financial, investment, or tax advice.
Power Law Model
A fixed time-based mathematical curve, adjusted to the current Bitcoin price
Details:
- •Developed by Giovanni Santostasi
- •Uses a time-based logarithmic relationship
- •Anchors the curve to the current Bitcoin price
- •Does not adapt to market events or personal inputs
Pros:
- ✓Clear and transparent calculation
- ✓Useful for long-term comparisons
- ✓Easy to compare with other scenarios
Cons:
- ✗Can be inaccurate over short time periods
- ✗External factors are not considered
- ✗Past patterns may not continue
Stock-to-Flow Model
A fixed halving-cycle scenario based on Bitcoin supply scarcity
Details:
- •Developed by PlanB (@100trillionUSD)
- •Uses fixed growth-rate assumptions for halving-cycle phases
- •Treats Bitcoin supply scarcity as a key input
- •Does not adapt to demand or regulatory changes
Pros:
- ✓Makes supply assumptions explicit
- ✓Easy to compare with other scenarios
- ✓Simple to understand
Cons:
- ✗Does not model demand factors
- ✗Can be disrupted by regulation or external events
Conservative Model
A fixed scenario using a 20% annual growth assumption
Details:
- •Uses a fixed 20% annual growth rate
- •Applies the same assumption every year
- •Does not react to market changes
- •Provides a lower-growth comparison scenario
Pros:
- ✓Transparent assumption
- ✓Easy to compare with other scenarios
- ✓Lower growth assumption than the other scenarios
Cons:
- ✗The rate can still be too high or too low
- ✗Does not account for changing market conditions
Rainbow Chart Model
A fixed 25% annual growth scenario inspired by logarithmic price patterns
Details:
- •Developed by Über Stock & Crypto
- •Inspired by logarithmic regression and colour bands
- •Uses a fixed 25% annual growth assumption here
- •Does not predict market turning points
Pros:
- ✓Easy to compare with other scenarios
- ✓Makes the growth assumption visible
- ✓Provides a mid-range scenario
Cons:
- ✗Can fail under extreme market conditions
- ✗Chart patterns are not guarantees
- ✗Does not account for unexpected events
❓Frequently Asked Questions
What is financial freedom?
Financial freedom means your passive income covers your living expenses. The 25x rule states that you need 25 times your annual expenses to be financially free.
How does Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) work?
DCA means investing a fixed amount regularly, regardless of the current price. This reduces the risk of bad timing and smooths out volatility over time.
Why Bitcoin for financial freedom?
Bitcoin is a decentralized, limited digital asset with strong historical returns. Its scarcity and growing adoption make it an attractive long-term store of value.
How reliable are these models?
All models are predictions based on historical data. They can be helpful, but markets are unpredictable. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.
What is the 25x rule?
The 25x rule comes from the FIRE movement (Financial Independence, Retire Early). It states that you need 25 times your annual expenses to live off 4% withdrawals.