Stock to Flow Calculator
Learn about Stock-to-Flow and Bitcoin scarcity. The table below is a separate hypothetical 40% compound-growth example, not a Stock-to-Flow forecast.
Hypothetical 40% Compound-Growth Scenario
Current BTC price: Loading... · Assumed growth: 40% per year
| Year | Hypothetical Value | Growth from Today |
|---|---|---|
| 2028 | — | — |
| 2030 | — | — |
| 2035 | — | — |
| 2040 | — | — |
| 2050 | — | — |
Hypothetical fixed 40% annual growth, not a Stock-to-Flow output. No halvings, volatility, fees, taxes, or inflation. Not financial advice. Returns may be negative.
The full calculator uses different methods: a market-price-anchored time function for Power Law and changing halving-phase rates for Stock-to-Flow, not PlanB’s original regression. Results differ from this fixed-growth example; no retirement date is guaranteed.
What Is the Stock-to-Flow Model?
The Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model applies the same valuation framework used for precious metals to Bitcoin. Precious commodities like gold maintain their value largely because they are difficult to produce — even if the price doubles, gold production cannot easily ramp up to meet demand. This makes them "hard money" with a high stock-to-flow ratio.
Bitcoin takes this concept even further. While gold's production can slowly increase with new mining technology, Bitcoin's issuance is mathematically fixed and decreases by 50% every four years through the halving mechanism. After the 2024 halving, only 3.125 new BTC are created per block (approximately every 10 minutes), giving Bitcoin a higher S2F ratio than gold for the first time in history.
PlanB's original S2F model demonstrated a strong statistical correlation between Bitcoin's S2F ratio and its market capitalization. While the model has limitations and has faced criticism for overestimating recent cycle peaks, the fundamental insight — that programmatic scarcity drives long-term value — remains a cornerstone of Bitcoin valuation theory.
Bitcoin Halving Schedule & S2F Ratio
| Halving Year | Block Height | Block Reward | S2F Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 210,000 | 25 BTC | ~25 |
| 2016 | 420,000 | 12.5 BTC | ~50 |
| 2020 | 630,000 | 6.25 BTC | ~100 |
| 2024 (current) | 840,000 | 3.125 BTC | ~200 |
| 2028 (next) | 1,050,000 | 1.5625 BTC | ~400 |
Each halving doubles Bitcoin's S2F ratio, making it progressively scarcer. By 2028, Bitcoin's S2F will be approximately 6× higher than gold's.
Key Concepts Behind S2F
Digital Scarcity
Bitcoin is the first digital asset with verifiable, absolute scarcity. Only 21 million BTC will ever exist. Unlike fiat currencies that can be printed without limit, Bitcoin's supply schedule is coded into its protocol and enforced by thousands of nodes worldwide.
Halving Effect
Every 210,000 blocks (~4 years), the block reward is cut in half. This supply shock has historically preceded major price increases within 12-18 months. The S2F model captures this cyclical dynamic mathematically.
Harder Than Gold
Gold has a S2F ratio of ~62 (it would take 62 years of production to double supply). Bitcoin's current S2F exceeds 120, making it the hardest monetary asset ever known. After the 2028 halving, it will reach ~400.
Long-Term Perspective
The S2F model works best over multi-year horizons spanning full halving cycles. Short-term volatility can cause prices to deviate significantly from S2F predictions, but the general direction over 4+ year periods has aligned with the model.
The full calculator uses different methods: a market-price-anchored time function for Power Law and changing halving-phase rates for Stock-to-Flow, not PlanB’s original regression. Results differ from this fixed-growth example; no retirement date is guaranteed.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Stock-to-Flow?
Stock-to-Flow compares existing Bitcoin supply with annual new production. Scarcity alone does not guarantee a price.
What does the table on this page calculate?
A hypothetical scenario: current BTC price × (1 + 40%) to the power of the number of years. It uses calendar-year differences rather than exact target dates. It calculates neither Power Law nor Stock-to-Flow and does not incorporate halvings.
Why does the full calculator produce different results?
The full calculator uses a market-price-anchored time function for Power Law: 10^−17 × days since January 3, 2009^5.8. Its Stock-to-Flow option uses changing growth rates by halving phase, not PlanB's original regression. It steps monthly using 30.44 days per month. These methods differ from this table's fixed growth.
Are these reliable return forecasts?
No. The table illustrates an assumption without volatility, fees, taxes, or inflation. Bitcoin can lose all its value. Historical patterns do not guarantee future returns. This is not financial advice.
Related Resources
Power Law Calculator
Time-based Bitcoin price model
Rainbow Chart Bitcoin
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Compare All Models
Side-by-side model comparison
S2F Model Explained
Full article on the S2F model
Price Predictions 2026–2050
Year-by-year projections from all models
How Much Bitcoin to Retire?
Calculate BTC needed for your expense level